People who forecast for a living (economists, stock market forecasters, weathermen, government agencies, etc.) have a notorious history for incorrect forecasts, but most decisions anyone must make in life usually require making a forecast about the future.
A couple of pitfalls immediately crop up here. To begin with, people generally make assumptions about the future that are more optimistic than the actual probabilities. Most people feel that they arc far more likely to win the lottery this month than they are to die in an auto accident, even though the probabilities of the latter are greater. This is not only true on the level of the individual, it is even more pronounced at the level of the group. When people work together, they tend to see a favorable outcome as the most likely result (everyone else seems to, otherwise they wouldn't be working here), otherwise they would quit the project they are a part of (unless, of course, we have all become automatons mindlessly slaving away on sinking ships).
The second and more harmful pitfall is that people make straightline forecasts into the future. People try to predict the price of a gallon of gas two years from now, predict what will happen with their jobs, who will be the next president, what the next styles will be, and on and on. Whenever we think of the future, we tend to think in terms of a single, most likely outcome. As a result, whenever we must make decisions, whether as an individual or a group, we tend to make these decisions based on what we think will be the single most likely outcome in the future. As a consequence, we are extremely vulnerable to unpleasant surprises.
Scenario planning is a partial solution to this problem. A scenario is simply a possible forecast, a story about one way that the future might unfold. Scenario planning is a collection of scenarios to cover the spectrum of possibilities.
scenario A and scenario B
But fortune teller can only forecast one story.
it is much easy listen to fortune teller than the stories of forecast
Palm Reading, Can you?
I want to show you my hand and tell my fortune